5 questions for Mervyn King on managing uncertainty and employing expertise

When can we rely on the predictions and projections of experts, and when are policymakers simply forced to deal with uncertainty? In the latter event, how should uncertainty be handled? I recently discussed these questions, ....

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5 questions for Richard Reeves, Isabel Sawhill, and Michael Strain on the state of the middle class

Many Americans believe that the middle class has been left behind — that wage growth has slowed down, life expectancies have stagnated, and civil society has deteriorated. To what extent are these fair diagnoses? And ....

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Decision-making in an age of radical uncertainty: My long-read Q&A with Mervyn King

So much of our policy debates rely on predictions, projections, and probabilities. What will the results of the upcoming election be? How will this policy affect economic growth? How big of a threat is climate ....

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Scenarios for US interest rates and emerging market default: The good, the bad, and the ugly

This note summarizes my presentation for the AEI Event, “The Debt Challenge of Emerging Market Economies”, October 28, 2020.[1] How likely are emerging market (EM) economies to default? Even before the coronavirus pandemic, many of ....

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Thinking about CRISPR, longevity, and innovation

In my recent podcast chat with Kevin Davies, executive editor of The CRISPR Journal and author of the recently released Editing Humanity: The CRISPR Revolution and the New Era of Genome Editing, it wasn’t until ....

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Mr. Lighthizer: ‘Tear down those walls’ surrounding Taiwan

My AEI colleagues Derek Scissors, Michael Mazza, and I have already made the economic and strategic case for the US to negotiate a free trade agreement with Taiwan. With Joe Biden’s victory in the US ....

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A successful vaccine doesn’t mean we should fall in love with industrial policy

A modest prediction: In post-pandemic America, populists and progressives will point to Operation Warp Speed’s role in COVID-19 vaccine development as a powerful example of effective industrial policy. And almost certainly to argue for more ....

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Congress still needs to respond further to the COVID recession

By Stan Veuger and Jeffrey Clemens Friday’s data on the October employment situation provides a sobering reminder of the ongoing need for sound economic policy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Labor market indicators remain ....

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Can America grow faster? We do so many things wrong, it sure seems like it should be possible.

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the long-term economic outlook for the American economy was unimpressive. Maybe not by, say, European standards, but certainly by historical American standards. The CBO’s pre-pandemic forecast from June 2019 saw ....

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