Low interest rates have reduced the pandemic’s damage to emerging market sovereign debt burdens

This post summarizes my presentation for the AEI event, “Coping with COVID-19 in Emerging Market Economies,” on February 5, 2021.[1] In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments in emerging market economies (EMEs) ratcheted up ....

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Turkey still needs the International Monetary Fund

President Erdogan’s recent economic policy U-turn is to be applauded as an important step in the right direction to stabilize the Turkish lira. However, it is far from clear that this alone will be sufficient to ....

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Scenarios for US interest rates and emerging market default: The good, the bad, and the ugly

This note summarizes my presentation for the AEI Event, “The Debt Challenge of Emerging Market Economies”, October 28, 2020.[1] How likely are emerging market (EM) economies to default? Even before the coronavirus pandemic, many of ....

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Brazil and Turkey: 2 canaries in the coal mine

Global economic policymakers taking comfort in the absence of a full-blown emerging market crisis in the wake of the pandemic might want to take careful note of Brazil and Turkey’s present economic and financial market ....

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